Thursday, April 26, 2012

Nick Trevethan - Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ on Gold

Nick Trevethan - Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ on Gold

When in times of economic and political adversity, money has traditionally flocked to gold, it is effective as a store of value. What people expect from gold is to manage and protect their wealth.


However, what we are seeing now, though, gold is actually trading in line risky assets, which does not really make sense for safe haven. Read more


Tuesday, April 24, 2012

USD/CAD Economic News & Technical Comments

USD/CAD Economic News and Technical Comments


Canadian retail sales came worse than expected declining by 0.2% (m/m) in February, while the forecast was for the indicator to remain unchanged. Core retail sales rose 0.5% vs. +0.4% forecasted and up from January’s -0.8%.

The pair USD/CAD initially rose on the news, but then began retracing down the gains as Case-Shiller HPI which in is measuring change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas also turned out to be quite disappointing: the index contracted in February by 3.5% (y/y). Read more

Monday, April 16, 2012

Euro Zone Financial Crisis - Spanish Debt Yields & Greece Bond Swap

Euro Zone Financial Crisis - Spanish Debt Yields & Greece Bond Swap


Greece pushed through the bond swap offer averting the immediate threat of an uncontrolled default and opening the way for a second rescue package.

Experts claim Spain has never been so close to default and Greece, Ireland and Portugal may need additional financial aid. Read more

Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise interest rate

Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise interest rate


The Bank of Canada meets on April 17. The analysts expect the central bank to keep the rates unchanged at 1%. Then the BOC will release full domestic and international assessment April 18.
On Thursday, April 12, Canada’s trade surplus declined to C$0.3 billion vs. C$2.2 billion expected and C$1.9 billion in February. However, many analysts believe the economy will continue demonstrating moderate growth. Read more

Is it fair to characterize gold bullion as an investment?

Is it fair to characterize gold bullion as an investment?


WHY BOTHER investing? Five years into the financial crisis – and more than a decade after the US market hit its big top in real terms – you might well ask. Especially now that cash, bonds, Treasuries and stocks pay between zero and sweet nothing in yield, just like gold bullion.
The aim if not the outcome of investment is simple, however. "Investing [is] the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more purchasing power – after taxes have been paid on nominal gains – in the future," as Warren Buffett wrote earlier this year to his Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Read more

Forex - J.P. Morgan trading USD/CAD

Forex - J.P. Morgan trading USD/CAD

Analysts at J.P. Morgan recommend selling the greenback versus Canadian dollarat 0.9980 stopping at 1.0050 and targeting 0.9800.
The specialists try to trade on the US earning season. In their view, the market’s expectations are very low, so there may be some upside surprises. Read more

Thursday, April 12, 2012

US budget deficit slightly lower in March

The US had a budget deficit equal USD 198 billion in March, Treasury department said on Wednesday.
It compares with a slightly worse shortfall of USD 232 billion in February.
Nevertheless the current estimate exceeds the USD 188 billion gap posted in March 2011. Read more

Monday, April 9, 2012

US yields advance is likely to slow down

So far there was a lot of talk about rising US Treasury yields which helped to push USD/JPY up and breach its long-term downtrend. Is this really a reversal of the 30-year bullish market characterized by increasing bond prices and declining yields and the demand for treasuries will start declining? Not likely.  Read more

Forex - Ifr Markets option expiration for today

Analysts at Ifr Markets, key analytical data provider, claim that today the following options expire:
EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3225, $1.3300, $1.3500, $1.3315.
USD/JPY: 82.25, 84.00 83.15, 83.00.
EUR/JPY: 108.00.
AUD/JPY: 83.75.
AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0300.

EUR/USD prospects remain unclear

BNP Paribas: The NFP data are quite comforting, since the cuts that occurred in March are very likely to be reversed afterwards.


On Monday, April 9, activity on the European markets remains weak due to Easter holidays in Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy and Great Britain. Given the rising Spanish bonds yield and increasing uncertainty about the country’s prospects, the future of the euro doesn't look bright. Read more

Mizuho short-term bearish on USD/JPY

Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the greenback may drift lower versus Japanese yen sliding to 80.00 in the next 2 weeks.
“When we look at the amount of short positions in the yen, we see that they really have not decreased. Their volume is large. At some point, these positions will be closed, leading to an increase in the yen. Employment data can serve as an impetus for this,” say the specialists. Read more

Friday, April 6, 2012

Nonfarm Payrolls Bloomberg survey in details

Bloomberg Survey
================================================================
                                        Nonfarm  Private Unemploy   Hourly
                                         Payrolls Payrolls     Rate Earnings
                                          ,000’s   ,000’s        %     MOM%
================================================================
Date of Release                 04/06    04/06    04/06    04/06
Observation Period            March    March    March    March
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median                                 25      215     8.3%     0.2%
Average                              208      220     8.3%     0.2%
High Forecast                      250      265     8.4%     0.2%
Low Forecast                     175      185     8.1%     0.1%
Number of Participants        80        45        76          49
Previous                             227      233     8.3%     0.1%
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd.                          200      215     8.2%     ---
ABN Amro Inc.                     210      230     8.3%     ---
Action Economics                210      215     8.3%     0.2%
Aletti Gestielle                      200     ---      8.3%     ---
Ameriprise Financial Inc       215      210     8.2%     0.2%
Banca Aletti & C spa            230      246     8.2%     ---
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi    200      210     8.2%     ---
Bantleon Bank AG               190     ---      8.3%     ---
Barclays Capital                   200      215     8.2%     0.1%
BBVA                                   200      210     8.3%     0.2%
BMO Capital Markets           190     ---      8.3%     0.2%
BNP Paribas                         210     ---      8.3%     0.1%
Read more

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Forex Market Daily Analysis - April 6, 2012

Forex Market Daily Analysis - April 6, 2012

The US stock markets closed the short trading week in mixed territory as NASDAQ rose 0.56% thanks to Apple that keeps setting new highs every day. Many financial institutes around the world are closed today and therefore the market could trade in narrow range and low volatility. However, the investors will look forwards to the Non-Farm payroll change data, which its influence on the markets we will probably see just on the beginning of the next week. Read more

Forex - USD/CAD Short and Longer term prospects

The pair USD/CAD is consolidating after yesterday’s advance. The market awaits Canadian employment data later today (payrolls are expected to increase by 11.3K after declining by 2.8K in February, unemployment rate is also seen higher at 7.5% vs. 7.4%) due at 12:30 GMT. Also watch Ivy PMI at 2:00 p.m. GMT. Analysts at Toronto-Dominion Bank: if loonie fails to find a powerful growth driver, it will risk declining. Read more

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Forex Daily Analysis - April 5, 2012

Forex Daily Analysis - April 5, 2012

The pound has failed in breaking through the resistance at 1.60, and those who follow our daily analysis could predict this false-break. It was clear that many amateurs would open long position right after the pound crossed 1.60, but the professional took advantage of that for taking profits of the positions they had opened much sooner. Read more

Mario Draghi - Upside inflation risks seen prevailing in 2012

Mario Draghi - Upside inflation risks seen prevailing in 2012

According to Mario Draghi, the region would undergo a moderate recovery over the course of the year, while inflation in the bloc would remain above 2% for the rest of the year. However, Draghi claims that ECB possesses all the necessary tools to tackle potential inflation risks. He expects the inflation to fall back below 2% in 2013 and to remain in line with price stability. Read more

Forex - Dollar rises on FOMC minutes

Forex - Dollar rises on FOMC minutes

The greenback strengthened against a basket of currencies on the backdrop of the release of the minutes of the FOMC’s meeting on March 13. The March minutes show decreased urgency to add stimulus with no sentiment expressed for additional easing unless the economic conditions worsen. The Fed also affirmed its plan, first announced in January, to hold low interest rates through late 2014. Read more

Forex - Merrill Lynch Trading Recommendations on EUR/AUD

Forex - Merrill Lynch Trading Recommendations on EUR/AUD

Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch recommend going short on the euroversus the Aussie, entering the trade at the current levels with a stop at 1.3050 and a medium-term target of 1.2200. Analysts believe the Australian dollar is a profitable bet these days: copper prices are rising, and Australia is the major copper exporter. Read more

Monday, April 2, 2012

Forex Daily Analysis - April 3, 2012

Forex Daily Analysis - April 3, 2012

The USD traded in mixed trend against the major currencies, as the Australian dollar was strengthening against it, after few weeks of declines. The pair has been sliding through a channel and started correcting up after it touched the support of the lower boundary, last Thursday.  The central bank of Australia published the interest rate this morning and therefore the rate statement will influence the momentum of the Aussie during the day. Therefore, a positive influence might help the AUD rise upwards to the higher boundary of the channel, around 1.050-1.0550. However, bearish reaction to the rate statement might pull the currency under 1.03 again. Read more

Energy commodities ended last week on a positive note amid the Euro Zone's optimism

Energy markets apart from natural gas moved higher on Friday on the increased optimism over the Euro Zone as its finance ministers agreed on boosting the bailout fund to a record high level of 700 billion Euros. From the supply side, the upswing is likely to be spurred as tensions between South Sudan and Sudan as well as between Iran and the West persist. However, speculation over the possible release of strategic oil reserves bounded the price moves to the narrow range.  Read more

U.S. personal spending rises more than forecast

U.S. personal spending rises more than forecast

U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in February, a sign the economy is strengthening. Purchases advanced 0.8 per cent from the previous month, after climbing 0.4 per cent in January. Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates Decision Outlook

Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates Decision Outlook

The Reserve bank of Australia meets tomorrow for an interest rates decision. The majority of the economists expect the central bank to leave the rates changed. Here’s more detailed into on the issue and the expectations of future RBA’s moves. Read more

Forex - RBS Trading Recommendations on AUD/USD

Forex - RBS Trading Recommendations on AUD/USD

Specialists at RBS recommend buying the Aussie against the dollar, potentially targeting at 1.0751 and stopping at 1.0290. The support lies at 1.0337/54 and at 1.0238 levels, whereas the resistance is placed at 1.0496 (previous support, now resistance), 1.0612 (76.4% retracement of the previous range), 1.0691 and 1.0856 (2012 maximum). Read more