Thursday, August 11, 2011

Daily Technical Analysis - August 11, 2011

Wall Street did not stop yesterday as indices fell 4% and rose flashbacks from 2008. As we mentioned before, these times are great for making quick money, but can also cause quick loses. Things look bad for the US stock market, though you should remember that the more the falls continue, the more are the chances for a correction to occur. The weekly low is the critic support and as long as the indices remain above this low, there will be better chances for recovering.


If anyone needed a proof that governmental interventions tend to fail, the YEN gives a perfect answer. Obviously, the governmental plan could have worked, but it was an excellent opportunity for catching the JPY in higher price. Sunbird's chief analyst showed the reversal pattern at 78.3, which worked perfectly and reached the target he set at 76.2. Now it is more risky to go in, since many short positions that were opened along the way down, are likely to be covered and eventually support the USD. Therefore, as we usually say in these kinds of situations, it would be wiser to wait for correction and a new reversal pattern. However, if the Yen continues and breaks the historical low, it might slide to 75.0 and below.


The gold keeps its amazing bullish momentum and it seems that nothing can stop it from continuing rising, except temporary corrections. About a month ago, when the price was less than 1600$/oz, we suggested some trade-ideas based on the daily chart. Now it is impossible to come up with trade ideas in the daily chart unless a deep correction occurs.

Nevertheless, it is possible to ride on the gold's waves in its intraday charts, by finding reasonable levels for short-term trades. Each trade should have a clear stop-loss levels and profits targets as well.

Marked in blue are levels that were potentially for entering. Red lines are the potential stop-loss levels. Try to learn from it as much as you can.

Silver (XAG/USD)

The silver is surprisingly weak, since you would expect that it would be a decent alternative for the high price of the gold. Just less than six months ago, the silver showed an extraordinary performance, but could not recover from the new regulations impact. In fact, the silver has been stamping since May and keeps changing directions, which makes it difficult to analyze. However, the recent break-ups of the 38$ & 40$ gave it a positive sense so it looks like it has an upside. The silver is now supported at the retest area around 37$, which is a significant support for this metal. If the buyers show their strength, then the silver might jump to 43$ and even higher than that. However, if the sellers take over again, the price can slide to 32$.