The exchange rate has reached the 1.0400 highs, as predicted, and has begun to sell-off from there. It is still too early to say whether a resumption of the down-trend has begun but it probably will soon if it has not already begun.
The pennant still indicates the likelihood of a bearish continuation and the current rally is weak and suceptible to break down. A move lower could target 1.0310 initially and then perhaps down to 0.9960. The next upside resistance level is at 1.0502.
Analysis prepared by: