Thursday, August 4, 2011

AUD/USD Elliott Wave count and Fibonacci levels - August 4, 2011

AUD/USD has developed wave A of long term uptrend from 1.0390 to 1.1079 (colored coral in the chart). Now corrective wave B is developing. Within this wave there are five subwaves - colored red in the chart - with subwave 5 still developing from 1.0784.

The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0390-1.1079, and expansions off 1.1079-1.0910-1.1063, 1.1063-1.0679-1.0784, 1.0784-1.0681-1.0778.

Supports:

- 1.0653 = .618 retracement
- 1.0621 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0611 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0547 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0508 = SXOP
- 1.0400 = OP

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.1079 - this wave is not developed, so no resistances are available so far.


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (40-45 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (65-80 pips above the current prices).


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert

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