Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Market Morning Overview - August 31, 2011

Fundamental market overview

EUR: European economic confidence index declines to 98.3

"The risk of recession in the euro area has clearly increased" 

- Daniel Hartmann, an economist at Bantleon Bank AG 


European economic confidence decreased the most since December 2010 in August, the European Commission in Brussels announced on Tuesday. Specifically, the index slid from revised 103 points in July to 98.3 points this month.  

"The risk of recession in the euro area has clearly increased as demand from Asia is flagging and governments' efforts to cut fiscal deficits are curbing domestic consumption," said Daniel Hartmann, an economist at Bantleon Bank AG. "I expect the indicator to decline further in the coming months." 


USD: US consumer confidence plunged in August


Weak US consumer confidence data "paints a picture of underlying demand weakening"  
- Bricklin Dwyer, an economist at BNP Paribas


US consumer confidence dropped to lowest level in more than two years in August as consumers are less optimistic on the outlook of the country's economy, the Conference Board Inc. said on Tuesday. An index of sentiment decreased from 59.2 points in July to 44.5 points in August.  

"This paints a picture of underlying demand weakening," said Bricklin Dwyer, an economist at BNP Paribas. "Consumers are seeing their wealth deteriorate. We've seen a huge decline continuing in the housing market. They've also been hit on the chin by the equity markets." 


GBP: Mortgage approvals rose slightly in July
 

UK housing market "remains essentially stagnant" 

- Andrew Goodwin, an economist at Ernst & Young's ITEM Club 


U.K. mortgage approvals increased slightly in July as borrowers were attracted by record low borrowing costs. Number of approved mortgages in July increased to 49.2 thousand, up 0.7 thousand from June, the Bank of England announced on Tuesday.

"The market remains essentially stagnant," said Andrew Goodwin, an economist at Ernst & Young's ITEM Club. "We're not going to see any significant change until there is a decisive improvement in lending conditions and that is unlikely to happen any time soon."


CHF: Swiss stocks rise for sixth day in seven 


"Markets are strongly oversold and a relief rally is not surprising" 

- Patrik Scheuber, head of equities at Swisscanto Asset Management AG  


Swiss stocks edged higher for sixth day in seven on Tuesday. The Swiss blue-chip index SMI, a measure of the largest and most actively traded companies, advanced 0.05% to 5,449.16. The broader Swiss Performance Index rose 0.16% to 4,971.48 the same day. 

"Markets are strongly oversold and a relief rally is not surprising," told Patrik Scheuber, head of equities at Swisscanto Asset Management AG. "The expectations of Bernanke's speech were -- fortunately -- not very high. Markets didn't expect anything concrete, so he didn't disappoint."


JPY: Japanese stocks advance for the fourth day


"U.S. economic data have lifted the mood" 

- Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co.

Japanese stocks edged higher on Thursday for the fourth consecutive day, as personal spending in the US rose more than expected. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.16% to 8,953.9, while the broader Topix climbed 1.12% to 767.3. 

"U.S. economic data have lifted the mood," said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. "The market is regaining confidence after Bernanke tried to not stoke pessimism in his speech." 
  
Market expectations


EUR/USD

The Euro-American dollar currency pair has bounced off strong resistance lines at 1.4537 and 1.4580, which triggered a decline, which may extend down to 1.4316, being the 55 day MA. In case the subsequent support at 1.4272 is breached, 1.4055 will be targeted next.




EUR/JPY

Initial resistance and support lines are situated at 111.81 and 111.05 accordingly. Additional support is provided by 110.39, being an uptrend, and 109.58-July low. From above the price is capped by 112.69 and 112.6.




GBP/USD

Both daily and weekly outlooks for the pair are currently neutral, implying movement in a narrow corridor. Near-term resistance is located at 1.6478, ahead of 1.6547 and 1.6572. On the other side, 1.6224 and 1.6140 are likely to halt dips.




USD/JPY

Supposing that the bearish movement appears, it will be reversed at one of the supports situated at 76.29, 76.25 or 75.94. Should the price turn bullish instead, resistances at 78.45, 78.66 and 79.57 will be encountered.




USD/CHF

The currency pair is anticipated to weaken during today's trade down to the level of 0.7790, being 20 day MA. Afterwards, the price is likely to gain bullish momentum and advance towards resistance, which lies at 0.8252.


Trading signals  


Most important events of the day

Europe

European Union struggles to overcome sovereign debt problems of its member states - Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Growth of other EU countries remains unstable, with recent disappointing economic data and decline in economic expectations.


German Chancellor Angela Merkel is weighing whether to yield to a demand by some lawmakers for a bigger voice in future debt bailouts as a condition to win her party's approval for a stronger euro-zone rescue fund, as a parliamentary vote on the issue was delayed a week.


USA

Economic slowdown in the USA provokes experts to suggest aggressive means of stimulating the United States, as previously used temperate measures did not prove to be sufficient.


The global economic crisis is leading to a possible "developed economy" recession in the U.S. and Europe, which may be hard to alleviate, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Bill Gross.


Asia & Pacific

Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has been elected as the Prime Minister by majority of the parliament votes on Tuesday. However, analysts believe that the yen may continue to grow against the major currencies during the following week. Despite the new appointment, investors still continue to buy Japanese currency forcing newly elected government to take urgent steps to combat the strong yen and deteriorating trading balance.


Japan's new Prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, said on Wednesday he held a courtesy phone call with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, but they did not discuss foreign exchange rate movements or other policy issues.





Daily Technical Analysis - August 31, 2011

Wall Street continued the bullish momentum yesterday, but the FOMC meeting minutes indicated that Bernanke is running out of tools for handling the economy's problems. The ADP employment change data will be on today's focus.

GBP/JPY

The pound was influenced by disappointing macro data and shed over 120 pips yesterday. The potential reversing was ruined by fundamental elements and the GBP got back to the previous week's lows. The JPY still has not made a significant move, but it is trying to break-down the support at 76.5 against the USD, and it looks like it is about to make a strong move.

If so, the GBP/JPY, which has already started a bearish trend, might dive sharply. 125 is the current support, though it was broken several times during the last 3-trading day. A strong break-down can take this pair to 123 and complete the "Inverted Cup & Handle" pattern.


AUD/NZD

Yesterday we analyzed NZD/USD and suggested that it might rise. The NZD made the expected rising and it is likely to keep its uptrend. The NZD's big brother, AUD, has a similar pattern against the USD, and the bullish trend is clear there as well.

These two countries have high interest levels that attract many powerful investors. However, the NZD seems to be winning in the battle between these two currencies. The NZD broke a significant support at 1.255 and now it is dealing with the round number- 1.250. A break-down there can fall to the 52-week low at 1.232.


USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar might turn back strengthening against the USD, after the American dollar failed breaking through 1.0. This pair is extremely volatile and it is hard to determine the direction of this pair, but the recent candlesticks might suggest that the CAD might rise. It broke down the support of the 200 SMA, which is an indicator that many traders use and base their decisions according to that. The 50 EMA supports the break-down candlestick from Monday. If the CAD starts its engines, it will have a freeway to 96.0.

Pay attention to the Canadian GDP data later today, which have a high impact on the currency.




Saturday, August 27, 2011

Behind Closed Doors at the Fed by Elliott Wave International

Behind Closed Doors at the Fed: Ten Years of Research into America's Central Bank   

Free Report Available Now Get your Free Report
August 26, 2011

By Elliott Wave International

During the past few years, The Federal Reserve has engaged in a "deliberate inflating policy."
This policy earned disfavor, both at home and abroad.

Robert Prechter said this in the July Elliott Wave Theorist:
"Foreign powers have been irate over the Fed's deliberate inflating policy. At its outset, QE2 generated 'a chorus of criticism' from China, Russia, Japan, Brazil and Germany. It prompted one of China's three credit rating services to lower its rating on U.S. debt from AA to A+, on the basis that QE2 is a scheme to defraud the Treasury's creditors.

(Inflation is a scheme to rob everyone.) Whether or not that rating decision was politically motivated, it represents foreign resistance to the Fed's machinations."
[Note: The credit rating service in China is not alone in downgrading U.S. debt. History was made August 5 when Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States' credit rating from AAA to AA+.]

External resistance to the Fed's policies is one thing. But the machinations of America's central bank are also encountering resistance from within the Fed itself, albeit "behind closed doors." Let's return to the July Theorist:
It is not just outsiders who criticize the Fed's policies. Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig voted against all seven of the Fed's policy decisions in 2010. He disagreed with QE2 on the basis that it would generate inflation. He went public with his views at a Republican meeting in Washington on December 2. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser have also expressed concerns. Even Kevin Warsh, at that time a Fed governor-at-large who had never failed to support Bernanke, in a New York speech "warned of 'significant risks' associated with the program" (AP, 11/9) and expressed doubt that it would help the economy at all. His op-ed piece for The New York Times "expressed deep skepticism" of the plan. Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, in a San Antonio speech called QE2 the "wrong medicine" for the economy.
The "wrong medicine" indeed! If anything, the economy seems as unhealthy now as it was before QE2. In a June 30 CNBC interview, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan himself said, "There is no evidence that [the] huge inflow of money into the system basically worked."




Prechter has extensively studied and written about the Fed for more than a decade. He has "pulled back the curtain" on the nation's "lender of last resort" and his findings are more relevant today than ever.

Prechter's research is now available in a Free Report titled:

Understanding the Fed: How to Protect Yourself from the Common and Misleading Myths About the U.S. Federal Reserve


This special free report is now available for you to read by simply joining Club EWI. Membership is also free, and there are no obligations when you join. When you become a Club EWI member, you gain instant access to a wealth of EWI Educational Resources.

Get your Free Report about the U.S. Federal Reserve now by following this link for the quick and easy sign-up!


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Behind Closed Doors at the Fed: Ten Years of Research into America's Central Bank. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

UK Revised GDP Data Release - August 26, 2011

Revised GDP q/q, or better known as the 2nd quarterly GDP release, is going to be the focus for today. Here is the forecast:
 
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%

ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.5% SELL -0.1%

The Trade Plan
 
Since this is the second release of the 2nd quarterly GDP, we´re not likely to get a huge surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of 0.2% and previous release of 0.2% (Prelim GDP), we may not get a surprise release after all.

However, we´ll still be looking to trade the release using our after news retracement method. Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we´ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at -0.1% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 0.5% or better, as I believe the only reason that would justify a short-term LONG on Sterling is definitely a above 0.5% positive figure.

Historically, if there is a 80% of chance that our S. Factor hits, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.

The Market
 
The revised UK GDP report will most likely reflect the preliminary GDP expectation of 0.2%. The BOE stated that high energy prices and the VAT tax hike are the primary causes of the 4.4% inflation mark, and not a result of economic activities. Obviously because of the higher commodities and taxes, consumers’ disposable incomes are being squeezed out and they are struggling to pay for basic needs such as food and gas.

The MPC voted 0-0-9 to keep interest rates on hold as both Dale and Weale changed their votes from rate hikes just during the last rate meeting.   Market rate hike expectations for the end of the year have diminished significantly and the likelihood of it happening is next to none.

Additional Thoughts

A strong release could create a huge surprise and bullish sentiment for the Sterling. If the deviations are met, look to BUY the GBP/USD around the 1.6300 mark.
 
Pre-news Consideration

There is no pre-news consideration for this release today.

Definition
 
Revised GDP q/q from UK, is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…

Thanks,

J.P.Morgan recommends avoiding loonie

Currency strategists at J.P.Morgan claim that once one is bullish on oil, all he needs is to choose which currencies of oil-producing nations to trade.

The specialists warn that it’s necessary to be very cautious with Canadian dollar as its dynamics is strongly correlated with the moves of S&P 500 Index. So does Mexico's peso and Russian ruble.

As a result, the best choice for such traders is Norwegian krone.

daily usdcad 17-01

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

published by FBS Holdings © 2011


Market Afternoon Overview - August 25, 2011

Previous session overview
News that billionaire investor Warren Buffett was buying 50,000 preferred shares of Bank of America Corp. (BAC) boosted sentiment for riskier investments Thursday, sending the euro sharply higher against the dollar and the Swiss franc. 

After dour U.S. jobless claims data depressed higher-yielding currencies, Buffett's decision boosted them anew. The euro vaulted by more than half a cent against the dollar to trade near USD1.4442, and jumped against the Swiss franc to trade near CHF1.1503. 

Earlier, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that the existence of the euro was not negotiable, and that France and Germany would not retreat on defending the single currency.

Gold futures slumped further and fell below USD1737 an ounce, after CME Group late Wednesday raised margin requirements to trade gold futures for the second time this month. 

The futures have dropped sharply since topping USD1900 during intraday trading Tuesday.

The Canadian dollar gained modestly Thursday after trading in a tight range overnight, as investors chose caution ahead of U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on Friday.

The U.S. dollar slipped to CAD0.9861 from CAD0.9872 late Wednesday, despite initial jobless claims in the U.S. showing an increase.

Overnight, the Canadian currency traded in a tight range against its U.S. counterpart, with very little by way of news and caution among investors, with chatter of bold new policy action fading.
Market expectation
For EURCHF immediate resistance lies at CHF1.1515 (day high/Aug 18 high) and above here, CHF1.1555 (Aug 17 high/50-day MA) and CHF1.16.45 (50% Fib retracement of the March - August decline).

On the downside, immediate support lies at CHF1.1435 (day low), and below here, CHF1.1370 (Aug 24 low) and CHF1.1340 (intra-day low), according technical analysts.

Dealers say that as long as the USDCHF holds above CHF0.7900, the outlook is bullish for a rise to 0.8000. Also there are chances of the up move extending further above CHF0.8000 to CHF0.8100-30.

Canadian Dollar breaking below CAD0.9825 support area to reach day lows below CAD0.9800 after Buffet announced. On the downside, immediate support lies at CAD0.9765/75 (Aug 9/17 lows), and below here, CAD0.9740 (Aug 5 low) and CAD0.9700 (50-day SMA). On the upside, the pair might find resistance at CAD0.9725/40 (Aug 22/24 low), and above here, CAD0.9900 (Aug 23/24 highs) and CAD0.9940 (Aug 18 high).





AUD/USD Near Resistance - August 25, 2011

The aussie dollar is still trading in a tight range. The head & shoulders pattern on the hourly chart broke its neckline but failed to follow-through and now the exchange rate is beginning to rise again. 

It will probably reach as high as the resistance level at the channel on the hourly chart at 1.0500 before possibly reversing and falling back down to 1.0430 lows, although a rise in upside momentum could puch it higher still.



Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst


Gold's 11% Plunge "Overdue, Unsurprising" - August 25, 2011

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
Thurs, 25 Aug. 2011

Gold's 11% Plunge "Overdue, Unsurprising" But "Doesn't Change Long-Term Fundamentals"

THE PRICE OF GOLD in professional wholesale dealing sank further on Thursday morning, plunging to a 9-session low of $1704 early in London – a drop of more than $200 per ounce from Tuesday's new record high.

"A glance at the gold price on a logarithmic scale suggests a correction was overdue," says Societe Generale's daily "macro" note.

"[But] the spectre of higher core inflation [as highlighted by last week's US consumer-price data] can only add to the attractiveness of gold, especially with interest rates so low.

"This makes the 11% decline since Tuesday’s peak seem all the more bizarre."

Pointing to what he calls "the key level on the weekly chart of $1729," Russell Browne at Scotia Mocatta says that a "break of this level would indicate an 'Outside Week' [with prices setting new highs but falling sharply lower] and warn of a deeper correction."

The 11% fall in the gold price "would be more concerning" however, says a note from Mitsui's London team, "were it not for the fact that gold's meteoric rise over the past month makes retracements of this size relatively unsurprising.

"Moreover, we maintain that the economic fundamentals that have been bullish for gold remain so, and that corrections such as this do not make the target price of $2000 any less realistic."

Wednesday brought heavy sales of gold both in the US derivatives and exchange-traded trust fund markets.

The SPDR Gold Trust ETF – larger by value than even the S&P500 ETF on Monday – shed another 26 tonnes of bullion as share-holders exited the fund, taking this week's tonnage drop to 4.5%.

US derivatives exchange the CME meantime raised margin payments on its gold futures for the second time in two weeks, taking the initial and maintenance payments to trade 100-ounce contracts more than 55% higher from mid-August.

"The margin hike...contributed to the liquidation," reckons David Thurtell at Citigroup.

"A lot of hot money has entered the complex and the rally was done too much in too short a time."

Citing volatility in gold prices as the reason – rather than the absolute price level – "I think we're seeing more and more diversification in people's portfolios," said CME executive chairman Terry Duffy to FoxBusiness overnight.

"Commodities are now definitely [used]...for diversification, where 10 or 12 years ago people didn't [even] see them as an asset class."

Broad commodity indices held little changed Thursday, as food-stuffs fell but energy and base metals ticked higher.

Swiss investment bank UBS today cut its growth forecast for China – now the world's No.2 private gold consumer – thanks to "much weaker growth prospects in developed economies.

"A significant drop in export growth, which could start in the fourth-quarter of 2011, is also expected to affect manufacturing investment and consumption," says UBS economist Tao Wang.

Rising 25% by tonnage in the year to July, private Chinese gold demand has doubled over the last decade to equal nearly 2% of annual household savings.

Looking ahead to Friday's much-anticipated Jackson Hole central banking speech from Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, "We await further evidence on the softness of the US economy before we would consider QE3 our base case," says today's note from Standard Bank's commodity team.

"[But] regardless of additional quantitative easing, we believe that  the long-term upside for gold remains in place."

Foreign exchange rates were meanwhile little changed Thursday morning as global stock markets rose, leaving the gold price drop for non-Dollar investors also around 10% from Tuesday's new record highs.

Adrian Ash




Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen's Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the World Gold Council market-development and research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.



AUD/USD Elliott Wave count and Fibonacci levels - August 25, 2011

AUD/USD is moving within potential wave C (from 1.0600) of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0533. 

The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0600, 1.0111-1.0600, 1.0315-1.0533, and expansions off 1.1079-0.9928-1.0600, 1.0600-1.0315-1.0533, 1.0533-1.0448-1.0521.
 
Supports:
- 1.0424 = .50 ret
- 1.0398 = .618 ret
- 1.0383 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0357 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0298 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and .618 ret

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.1079-0.9928, and expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315.

Resistances:
- 1.0639 = .618 ret
- 1.0730 = contracted objective point (COP
)


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (50-60 pips above the current prices).


Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert

InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis - August 25, 2011



Gold is currently testing the lower limit of its short-term bearish channel in 1730 and seems to start a rebound. However a break of these levels would initiate a bearish trend more violent.

According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1730 with a 1st objective of 1744, then 1749. A break in 1727 would invalidate this scenario.

Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert

InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

Capital Economics: USD/JPY forecast

Currency strategists at Capital Economics still think that he greenback will be able to rise to 85.00 versus Japanese yen by the end of 2011. Such forecast is based on the assumption that the Bank of Japan will continue easing its monetary policy and that Japan will become less attractive as a refuge.

The specialists underline that if the Federal Reserve doesn’t start new round of QE, while the BOJ continues expanding its asset purchase program that will be sufficient to drive yen down. In addition, investors may start worrying about the economic and fiscal position of Japan itself.

Yesterday Moody’s Investors Service reduced Japan’s credit rating by one step to Aa3 – not very surprising event taking into account the fact that Japanese monetary authorities have made no efforts to reduce the nation’s dent.

It’s necessary to note, however, that if the Swiss Central Bank will do more easing measures to weaken franc, demand for yen may rise, says Capital Economics. In this case the pair USD/JPY may drop to 70 yen and even lower.

daily usdjpy 12-18 

published by FBS Holdings © 2011

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels - August 25, 2011







TODAY's  TECHNICAL  LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level : 1.4478.
Strong Resistance : 1.4470.
Original Resistance : 1.4457.
Inner Sell Area : 1.4443.
Target Inner Area : 1.4409.
Inner Buy Area : 1.4374.
Original Support : 1.4361.
Strong Support : 1.4347.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.4339.
 

SHORT  DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD will find Support and Resistance between 1.4361 and 1.4457; and this pair today has a strong Support at 1.4347 and a strong Resistance at 1.4470; if today EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.4339, it will be sign for a SHORT trading for today; on the other hand, if this currency breaks out and closes above 1.4478, it will be sign for a LONG trading for today. Another option for the advanced trader can be trading between Inner Buy Level at 1.4374 for LONG trading and Inner Sell Level at 1.4443 for SHORT trading, and both of them (Inner BUY & Inner SELL Level) have the target at 1.4409.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert

InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

Daily Technical Analysis - August 25, 2011

Last trading day in Wall Street has been characterized by much volatility. The leading indices have changed direction several times while it seems that the macro-data that reflected a rise of 4% in the orders of sustainable merchandises, as opposed to a prediction of only 2%, has tipped the scale towards a rally at the last minutes of the trade. 

Other news that have contributed to volatility are fears from negative developments related to the debt crisis in Europe, as opposed to cautious optimism from the investors following the speech of the President of the Federal Bank in the USA, Ben Barnanke, as well as the probability of declaration of a third quantity easing plan. In France, the Prime Minister Francois Fillon has announced a vast package of spending cuts in order to cope with the large debts in the country. In addition, the country now expects to grow only 1.75% a year while the previous prediction was of a growth of about 2% a year. 

On the background of all these news, gold has fallen by 5.3%, the sharpest decline in the last three years, a decline of over a hundred dollars an ounce in one single trade day.   

The leading indexes:
NASDAQ  + 0.88%
CC 40        + 1.79%
DAX           + 2.69%  
 
The leading merchandises

As already mentioned, the Gold has experienced a correction downwards after breaking the record of all times in the course of last week. At the end of the day, Gold has ended at the level of 1763$/oz. As opposed to the Gold, the oil has closed with a light decline of 0.3% to the level of 85.16$ a barrel.  

Macro-data

The significant data that are to be published today at 10:30 (GMT +1) are the "Primary Jobless Claims in the United States", that – according to the forecasts -are expected to reflect a decline to the level of 403 thousands against the previous data of 408 thousands claims.

Market analysis 

EUR/GBP

The pair has been traded in a bearish tendency despite a light halt in June. In fact, except for the Swiss Franc, it seems that the Sterling is the strongest currency compared to the Euro in this period. For these reasons, and out of fears from the impact of the governmental intervention in Japan and in Switzerland, it seems that the Sterling constitutes the best alternative  and a kind of "safe shore". Technically, it seems that a break-down at the level of 0.8660 might lead an additional course of decline while the next targets for realization might be at the levels of 0.8588 and 0.8470. The stop order might be localized around the level of 0.8750. 


AUD/USD

There is a realistic possibility of testing the low level at 0.9927 and a possibility for the continuation of the declines down to the level of 0.9500 in case of a break-down. According to the prices canal that may be watched in the graph, the parity is expected to be traded at levels under 1.0600, but in case it rises above this rate, it is expected to trample at its highest limit and to be at the level of 1.0785.     


EUR/USD

Following yesterday's analysis, it seems that the Euro is trying again to create a momentum towards next Friday, when the President of the Fed, Barnanke, will pronounce his speech at the Yearly  Banks Congress in Jackson Hole, while the investors see this speech as being very important regarding the American economic incentivisation.Today, at 14:30 (GMT +1), the American calendar will publish the "Unemployment claims" data with a positive forecast. In case this data reflects the economists' predictions, we will expect the first support point at 1.4375, yesterday's low.  A breakthrough of this level might lead to the next support that also represents Monday's daily low, at 1.4345.   However, if, during the course of the day, the Euro continues the same pattern of rises as the last few days, but manages – this time -  to overpower the dollar, we will expect it to reach around 1.451, as we may see on the daily graph. At this level, the pair will wait for the possibility of non-encouraging news from the yearly economic congress and will try to reach the level of 1.47.