Thursday, July 7, 2011

US Non-Farm Payrolls Forecasts

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News believe that US Non-Farm Payrolls increased in June by 100,000 after gaining 54,000 in May that was the minimal rise in 8 months.

Such advance, however, won’t be enough to reduce the unemployment rate that is expected to remain at 9.1%. In order to achieve sustainable decline in the joblessness rate, payrolls have to climb by roughly 200,000 a month. The monthly average in the first quarter was only at 166,000.

In June the pace of the payrolls growth is likely to be slower than that as the companies tend to limit costs trying to hold their ground in the time of general economic weakness – last month Ben Bernanke called US economic recovery “frustratingly slow”. The Federal Reserve’s Chairman says that the central bank projects that the unemployment rate will continue declining but at a very low pace.

The situation on the labor market has been during the last few years far from optimistic – since Barak Obama became president in January 2009 unemployment has increased by almost a percentage point, while the economy has lost 2.5 million jobs.

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