Friday, July 15, 2011

GBP/JPY Elliott Wave count and Fibonacci levels

GBP/JPY broke below 128.19 and thus confirmed wave C of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart). This wave however is part of impulse wave C of long term downtrend (from 132.30) - this one is light green in the chart. Within the "royal blue" wave there are waves of still smaller degrees - magenta (A and B), orange red (A, B and C).

Now the resistances are Fibonacci retracements of 130.09-124.87, 130.82-124.87, and expansions off 124.87-127.83-126.78, 126.78-128.11-127.16.

Resistances:
- 127.98 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 128.10 = .618 retracement
- 128.49-55-61 = confluence area of objective point (OP), .618 ret and COP
- 129.31 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 129.74 = OP
- 130.64 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)

If the price reverses to the downside, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.87-128.11 and expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.19-130.82, 130.82-124.87-128.11.

Supports:
- 126.87 = .382 ret
- 126.49 = .50 ret
- 126.11 = .618 ret
- 124.43 = COP
- 124.17 = XOP
- 123.61 = XOP


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
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