Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Economists expect the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index to Fall

Previous session overview
The debt stalemate in Washington continues to weigh on the dollar before a pair of economic reports on US consumer confidence and home sales. Economists expect the Conference Board's consumer confidence index to fall, while new home sales are expected to rise.

With market participants locked in on the debt debate, economic reports could become secondary. A report out earlier Tuesday that showed home prices fell 4.5% in May did little to move the dollar.

The euro rose against the dollar to USD1.4474 from USD1.4378 late Monday. The greenback fell to CHF0.8025 from CHF0.8060.

The dollar is at JPY78.04 from JPY78.28 late Monday. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.5% at 73.724.

Elsewhere, the pound rose against the buck, after U.K. economic growth in the second quarter turned out to be not as bad as expected. The pound was USD1.6396 against the dollar, compared with USD1.6273 late Monday in New York.

Canadian dollar trading at its highest level since Nov 2007 vs. the US dollar. The Canadian dollar is benefiting from broad weakness in the US dollar, as investors ditch the greenback with US lawmakers continuing to argue about raising the debt ceiling. US dollar at CAD0.9417, off an intraday low of CAD0.9410 and from CAD0.9473 late Monday.
Market expectation
Even if Washington succeeds in breaking the deadlock and averting a default, as many in the market expect, concerns remain over whether the U.S. will hold onto its triple-A credit rating. 

A downgrade would further weaken the dollar, particularly against liquid alternatives such as the euro and Australian dollar, dealers said. 

Even so, is cautious on the prospects for a sustained euro rally against the dollar, given the funding problems of some euro zone countries. They added.

The US dollar has resumed its bear trend, according to technical analysts. It's broken from its recent range, the analysts say of the Dollar Index, confirmed by EURUSD topping USD1.4446 key resistances. Eclipsing that technical level, the analysts say, points to a "larger bull trend" for the pair, with USD1.5150 in sight. If EURUSD is able to rally past that mark, it's targeting USD1.5304, the analysts say. Investors ditch the dollar on the continued back-and-forth over the US debt ceiling.