Tuesday, July 12, 2011

AUD/USD Elliott Wave count and Fibonacci levels

AUD/USD has developed wave A of medium term uptrend 1.0390-1.0789 - colored royal blue in the chart. And now corrective wave B is developing from 1.0789. 

Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves, colored magenta in the chart. Within the magenta wave C there are subwaves of still smaller degree - colored orange red (A, B and C) and yellow in the chart (five waves). 

Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0390-1.0789, and expansions off 1.0789-1.0654-1.0787, 1.0787-1.0704-1.0768, 1.0768-1.0681-1.0723, 1.0723-1.0631-1.0676.

Supports:

- 1.0589-84-82 = confluence area of .50 retracement, objective point (OP) and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0569 = XOP
- 1.0551 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0542 = .618 ret
- 1.0527 = XOP
- 1.0495 = SXOP

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0787 - this wave is not yet developed.


Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert